- P2016 Home « Reading Tea Leaves: Potential 2016
Presidential Candidates in the Pre-Campaign Period
Reading Tea Leaves:
Potential 2016 Presidential Candidates
Nov. 2012 through Nov. 4, 2014
[click here for more recent
after Nov. 4, 2014]
In the pre-campaign period, through the 2014 mid-term elections, there
is a lot of speculation about possible candidates. Some of
these figures have no intention of
running, others have all but decided to run, others are genuinely
undecided, and still others have not yet caught the attention of the
media and are not included. Although individual prospects are
"thinking about it" or dropping hints or
engaging in
activities
that strongly suggest they intend to run, at this point no major
candidates have declared outright that they are running. It is
basically a matter of reading tea leaves, a game of speculation.
The 2014
mid-term elections will clarify the political terrain and potential
candidates'
decisions.
See also: Pre-Campaign Organization | Visits Overview | Iowa | NH | SC | Ads and Videos | Books | Ages | C-SPAN
continued from above...
For those currently serving in public office, there
are the day-in, day-out challenges of governing. Some potential
candidates face
re-election in 2014, and it is in their interest not to stray too far
afield. Others have busy travel schedules, and are visiting key
primary
states, trekking around the
country and addressing key constituencies. The 2014 mid-term
elections offer many opportunities to
help a party's candidates and coincidentally connect with
activists. Prospects have a number of vehicles including
leadership PACs, 501(c)(4)s, and other organizations to help get out
their messages.
Even if an individual has absolutely no intention
of running, being seen as a potential presidential candidate can be
helpful for his or her endeavors. All it takes is a trip to Iowa,
New Hampshire or a remark about "not ruling it out" or "keeping the
door open."
As interesting as the activities of potential candidates themselves
are the activities of activists seeking to encourage various
individuals to run. Observing more or less organized draft
efforts, super PACs, petitions, and Facebook activity or the absence
of such activity, one can get a sense of the kind of grassroots
support a
prospect might have if he or she does get in the race.
Currently there are many more prospects on the Republican side than on the Democratic side; Hillary Clinton is seen as the almost inevitable Democratic nominee should she decide to run, and that has suppressed activity by other potential Democratic candidates.