Charlie Cook Sees "Very Unfavorable Environment for Democrats" ... >
July 15, 2014 - In one of a series of discussions leading up to the mid-term elections Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, and one of the most astute observers of American elections, said he sees "cleary a very unfavorable environment for Democrats."  He said his model, which had shown Republicans picking up five House seats, or a range of from no net change to ten seats, is now showing more like six or seven or eight seats or a range from two to three to 12 or 13.  Cook outlined four forces weighing against Democrats in the Senate: a) 21 seats held by Democrats are up compared to 15 held by Republicans; b) the map, or where the seats are (for example, seven of the Democratic seats up were won by Romney in 2012); c) turnout in a non-presidential year favors Republicans; and d) the overall political environment.  He said three seats held by Democrats--SD, MT and WV--will almost certainly go to the Republicans.  Seven seats held by Democrats are toss ups: AK, AR, CO, LA and NC and more recently the open seats in IA and MI.  If the political environment gets tougher for Democrats, NH could move to that group, and if it gets really tough so could MN and OR.  Meanwhile for Republicans only two seats are in play, GA and KY. 

Cook also addressed the question of "when are things going to get back to normal in Washington," providing a very thoughtful analysis of the dysfunction in the capital.  On the situation in the House he said that he has sympathy for Speaker John Boehner, who has to deal with "exotic members."  He also said the Hastert Rule, an informal policy of not bringing any bill to the floor for a vote unless it has the support of the majority of the majority, is a problem.  Cook said in the old days, part of the job of the leader was making tough decisions, while today it is shielding members from having to cast tough votes.  Cook said the Senate is designed to be cumbersome and deliberate, but when partisanship is added on top of that nothing happens.  He said Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell are the most combative Senate leaders in the last 75 or 80 years; they barely speak to each other and the Senate is "convulsing" and "can't really work."  Finally, Cook described the White House as "sort of disengaged."  He said the President hasn't done well building relationships with the Hill.  The net effect, Cook said, is "this isn't working real well."
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