Charlie Cook Sees "Very Unfavorable
Environment for Democrats" ... > |
July 15, 2014 - In one of
a series of discussions leading up to the mid-term elections Charlie
Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, and one of
the most astute observers of American elections, said he
sees "cleary a very unfavorable environment for Democrats." He
said his model, which had shown Republicans picking up five House
seats,
or a range of from no net change to ten seats, is now showing more like
six or seven or eight seats or a range from two to three to 12 or
13. Cook outlined four forces weighing against Democrats in the
Senate: a) 21 seats held by Democrats are up compared to 15 held by
Republicans; b) the map, or where the seats are (for example, seven of
the Democratic seats up were won by Romney in 2012); c) turnout in a
non-presidential year favors Republicans; and d) the overall political
environment. He said three seats held by Democrats--SD, MT and
WV--will almost certainly go to the Republicans. Seven seats held
by Democrats are toss ups: AK, AR, CO, LA and NC and more recently the
open seats in IA and MI. If the political environment gets
tougher for Democrats, NH could move to that group, and if it gets
really tough so could MN and OR. Meanwhile for Republicans only
two seats are in play, GA and KY. Cook also addressed the question of "when are things going to get back to normal in Washington," providing a very thoughtful analysis of the dysfunction in the capital. On the situation in the House he said that he has sympathy for Speaker John Boehner, who has to deal with "exotic members." He also said the Hastert Rule, an informal policy of not bringing any bill to the floor for a vote unless it has the support of the majority of the majority, is a problem. Cook said in the old days, part of the job of the leader was making tough decisions, while today it is shielding members from having to cast tough votes. Cook said the Senate is designed to be cumbersome and deliberate, but when partisanship is added on top of that nothing happens. He said Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell are the most combative Senate leaders in the last 75 or 80 years; they barely speak to each other and the Senate is "convulsing" and "can't really work." Finally, Cook described the White House as "sort of disengaged." He said the President hasn't done well building relationships with the Hill. The net effect, Cook said, is "this isn't working real well." |
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