- The Road to Cleveland « April 5, 2016 Wisconsin Primary
April 5, 2016 Wisconsin Primary
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April
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April
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April
5
Dems:
WI
42 Delegates
Summary: Wisconsin was the only contest on the day and
stood as a bit of a peak in the
nominating calendar; the previous primary was on March 22 and the next
is on April 19 (although there were contests in North Dakota and
Colorado in between). Wisconsin saw competitive contests in both
parties. The expectation heading into Primary Day was
that Cruz would defeat Trump by a sizable margin. Cruz and his
campaign worked hard to make sure that happened, and they won by a
13-point margin over Trump; they then
sought to portray the win as a major turning point in the campaign.
WISCONSIN PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PRIMARY (42 delegates)
CRUZ | TRUMP |
KASICH |
MORE (9+w/in) |
UNINSTR. |
TOTAL |
533,079 (48.26%) |
387,295 (35.06%) |
155,902 (14.11%) |
26,006 (2.35%) |
2,281
(0.21%)
|
1,104,563 |
Christie 1,191 (0.11%), Fiorina 772 (0.07%), Santorum 511 (0.05%), Gilmore 245 (0.02%) and Victor Williams (w/in) 39
Not included in total: Scattering 1,381
Organization: BUSH | CRUZ
|
FIORINA
| KASICH |
RUBIO
|
TRUMP
OVERVIEW
High turnout was expected due to competitive
contests in both parties. Wisconsin's Government Accountability
Board "projected that 1.75 million Wisconsin residents – or 40 percent
of eligible voters –
will vote in the 2016 Spring Election and Presidential Preference
Primary, which would be the
highest turnout since 1980 for an April election" Wisconsin's new
photo ID law may have contributed to confusion and long lines in some
areas. (+)
In the
lead-up to April 5 Cruz did more events in Wisconsin than any other
candidate of either party, his campaign opened at least half a dozen
offices, and he secured endorsements of Gov. Walker, U.S. Reps.
Grothman and Ribble and over 20 state legislators. Walker as well
as Carly Fiorina and Sen. Mike Lee stumped with Cruz, and Cruz-allied
super PACs were active, hosting several of his rallies and running
advertising.
Trump
meanwhile endured a bad week leading up to the primary as his campaign
manager was charged with battery and he suggested that "there would
have to be "some form of punishment" for women if abortion became
illegal. Talk radio also aligned against Trump. Further,
Trump had not fared particularly well in neighboring Minnesota, where
he
finished third with 21-percent, and in Iowa he was second with
24-percent, although both were caucus states. Trump did make an
effort though, doing a dozen events in the lead-up to the
primary.
Kasich had an
organization, opened a couple of offices
and did some advertising, but put in relatively little time campaigning
in the state. (see: Campaign Activity)
Cruz won a group of 24
counties in south and central eastern Wisconsin from Milwaukee to Dane
(Madison) to Oshkosh (Winnebago) to Green Bay (Brown), and he won
several counties from Eau Claire to the Minnesota border. Trump
won a big swath across northern Wisconsin, most of western Wisconsin
and, narrowly, Kenosha County in the far southeast. Kasich's best
showing was in Dane County where he finished third with a bit more than
29% of the vote.
REACTIONS
Cruz Calls
Wisconsin Victory a “Turning Point”
Trump "Withstood the onslaught of the
establishment yet again"
Kasich for
America: The Nomination Contest is Wide Open
Democrats and Aligned
DELEGATES
National
delegate
allocation: Cruz 36, Trump 6.
Delegates