October 20, 2014

FROM: RNC Chief of Staff Mike Shields
TO:       Interested Parties 
RE:       Republican Momentum

Just about every way you slice it, Republicans have the clear advantage in these final weeks:
  • According to the Washington Post’s generic ballot survey, Republicans have a 50-43 advantage, almost identical to this point in the 2010 election.
  • President Obama, who said his policies are “on the ballot,” has seen his approval rating sink to record lows again. Voters trust Republicans more on just about every policy issue.
  •  Political handicappers, including Nate Silver, the New York Times’ Upshot, and Charlie Cook, continue to up the chances of Republicans taking back the Senate.
  •  In races for 10 Democrat-held Senate seats, Republicans have a lead in the polls. 
  •  In these same 10 races, Republicans outraised, effectively tied, or have a cash on hand advantage over their Democrat opponents for the third quarter.
  • Just a few months ago, Democrats didn’t even expect to have to compete in states like Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Now Democrats are scrambling to play defense.
Here’s a state-by-state breakdown of those 10 races:
 
ALASKA
  • Sullivan outraised Begich for the second straight quarter—this time by roughly $1 million.
  • Republican Dan Sullivan has led all eight post-primary polls against Senator Begich.
 
ARKANSAS
  • Republican Tom Cotton brought in a record $3.8 million. He outraised Senator Mark Pryor for the fourth straight quarter and has nearly three times the cash on hand.
  • Eight of the last nine non-partisan polls show Cotton with the lead.
 
COLORADO
  • Republican Cory Gardner outraised Senator Mark Udall during the third quarter and has a nearly 2-1 cash on hand advantage.
  • Udall has trailed in nine of the last ten non-partisan polls, after enjoying a seven-point lead back in July. The latest Quinnipiac poll had Gardner up six points.
 
IOWA
  • Republican Joni Ernst raised a whopping $6 million in the third quarter, more than twice as much as Democrat Bruce Braley.
  • Of the last 11 non-partisan polls, Braley has led in only one. The eight-point lead he enjoyed in the spring evaporated. The latest USA Today/Suffolk poll has Ernst up four points.
 
LOUISIANA
  • Republican Bill Cassidy had his strongest quarter to date and has over $1 million more cash on hand than Mary Landrieu.
  • Cassidy has led Landrieu in seven straight non-partisan polls and has been ahead in polling averages since December.
 
MONTANA
  • Republican Steve Daines outraised Democrat Amanda Curtis three-to-one in the third quarter.
  • Daines has led in every non-partisan poll by at least 18 points.
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE
  • Republican Scott Brown outraised Senator Jeanne Shaheen in the third quarter.
  • Democrats mistakenly thought this was a safe seat. Until September, most polls showed Shaheen with a double-digit lead, but now the race has tightened dramatically. Brown led in the most recent New England College poll.
 
NORTH CAROLINA
  • Republican Thom Tillis had his best quarter, posting a $3.2 million fundraising haul and has more cash on hand than Senator Kay Hagan
  • The race has tightened dramatically, with Tillis taking the lead in a High Point University Poll.
  
SOUTH DAKOTA
  • Republican Mike Rounds hasn’t trailed in a poll all year and has outraised both of his opponents to date.
 
WEST VIRGINIA
  • Republican Shelley Moore Capito hasn’t trailed in a poll all year and has consistently outraised her Democrat opponent, Natalie Tennant.
 
Even beyond the Senate races, it’s a promising year for Republicans. For example, the GOP is competitive in the Democrat-leaning Northeast in key gubernatorial, Senate, and House races.
  • Republicans are leading or are competitive in the Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire gubernatorial races.
  • Republicans are also poised to pick up House seats in Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New York. Democrats are also losing in GOP-held districts they hoped to win in New York and New Jersey.
  •  In addition to Scott Brown’s strong campaign in New Hampshire, Senator Susan Collins of Maine enjoys a comfortable 30-point lead, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
As Democrats struggle to defend House seats, the Chairman of the DCCC is practically begging outside groups to help limit the damage.
 
The RNC had a record-breaking September for fundraising, bringing in $13.5 million. That allowed us to help our partners at the NRSC, NRCC, and the state parties, while continuing to field an unprecedented RNC ground operation that has us on track for a great Election Day.
 
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