WISCONSIN 10 Electoral Votes 
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Trump's wins in Wisconsin and Michigan were great surprises.

The Clinton campaign appeared to take Wisconsin for granted.  National Journal's Charlie Cook writes that, "The Clin­ton team was so con­fid­ent in its ana­lyt­ic­al mod­els that it op­ted not to con­duct track­ing polls in a num­ber of states dur­ing the last month of the cam­paign."  He argues that such tracking polls would have highlighted the campaign's perilous position in states such as Wsiconsin and Michigan.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign saw the opportunity.  They had not been ignoring the state, making occasional visits, and weighed in with a late push.  In a post-election interview with "60 Minutes," Trump digital director Brand Parscale stated that in the closing week, "I took every nickel and dime I could out of anywhere else. And I moved it to Michigan and Wisconsin. And I started buying advertising, digital, TV."

Post-election analyses also pointed to effects of the voter ID law in tipping the balance to Trump.  For example, one study looked at Dane and Milwaukee counties and found that, "If they voted at 2012 rates, voter ID lowered turnout by 0.9 to 1.8 percentage points."  The study further notes, "The burdens of voter ID fell disproportionately on low-income and minority populations."  An earlier anaylsis by the Democrat-aligned Priorities USA, points to a 3.3% decline in turnout and claims that, "If turnout had instead increased by the national- no-change average, we estimate that over 200,000 more voters would have voted in Wisconsin in 2016."  The key words are "if turnout had instead increased..."  Looking at the neighboring states of Minnesota and Iowa, one sees the turnout also dropped there, although not by as much; the 200,000 number thus appears inflated.

Comparision of 2012 and 2016 Turnout in Wisconsin and Neighboring States

3,068,434  (72.9%)
2,976,150  (69.4%)
1,582,180  (70.3%)
1,566,031  (68.4%)
2,936,561  (76.0%)
2,944,813  (74.2%)
Figures are Total Votes for President and Voting Eligible Popultion Highest Office Turnout

Although Trump ultimately prevailed by a thin 22,748-vote margin (0.74 percentage points), he did turn broad swaths of the state red, carrying 60 counties to just 12 for Clinton.  By comparison, in 2012 Obama carried 35 counties and in 2008 he carried 59 counties.

The post-election period was interesting as well.  On Nov. 25, the Stein campaign requested a recount.  The Wisconsin Elections Commission approved the recount, for which the Stein campaign was to pay an estimated cost of just under $3.5 million.  Legal maneuvering included an unsuccessful effort by the Stein campaign to have the recount done by hand in all 72 counties, an FEC complaint by the Wisconsin Republican Party, and an unsuccessful lawsuit by two pro-Trump PACs to terminate the recount.

Tom Kertscher.  "Were 300,000 Wisconsin voters turned away from the polls in the 2016 presidential election?"  PolitiFact, Dec. 7, 2016.

Charlie Cook.  "How Analytical Models Failed Clinton."  National Journal, Dec. 26, 2016.

Ari Berman.  "Wisconsin’s Voter-ID Law Suppressed 200,000 Votes in 2016 (Trump Won by 22,748)."  The Nation, May 9, 2017.

(60 Minutes Overtime)  "Parscale: TV News Thought I Was a Joke." CBS, News, Oct. 8, 2017.