The Iowa caucuses are the first step in the nominating processes of the Democratic and Republican parties. As a result, Iowa garners a vastly disproportionate number of candidate visits and amount of media attention. A better than expected showing on caucus night can boost a candidacy, while a poor performance can spell the end of a candidate's hopes.
First-in-the-Nation
Iowa
Code--Title II Chapter 43.4:
Delegates to county conventions of political parties and party committee members shall be elected at precinct caucuses held not later than the fourth Monday in February of each even-numbered year. The date shall be at least eight days earlier than the scheduled date for any meeting, caucus or primary which constitutes the first determining stage of the presidential nominating process in any other state, territory or any other group which has the authority to select delegates in the presidential nomination. The state central committees of the political parties shall set the date for their caucuses... |
Because Iowa's precinct caucuses are the first contests in the presidential nomination processes of both parties, the state attracts an inordinate amount of attention from candidates and the media. In fact authors Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford describe the caucuses as a "media event." Although there have been attempts in the past to challenge the first-in-the-nation status of the Iowa caucuses, supporters of the process argue that the precinct caucuses allow for retail politicking which simply would not be possible in larger states. For Iowa voters who choose to engage in the caucus campaign the experience can be intense. In the 2012 cycle, for example, from Nov. 2008 to Caucus Day Jan. 3, 2012 Republican prospective candidates, former candidates and candidates made over 240 visits to Iowa totaling more than 500 days. With the large number of GOP candidates running in 2016, including several committing to the "full Grassley" (visiting all 99 counties), and the later caucus date, figures for the this cycle will no doubt eclipse those from 2012. In addition to visits, campaigns invest significant resources in putting staff on the ground, ads on the air, and mailers in mailbox, interest groups weigh in, and reporters flock to the state.
The Iowa caucus campaign fulfills an important winnowing
function. The cliche is that there are three tickets out of Iowa,
namely a first-, second- or third-place finish in the caucuses, and
that if a candidate does not achieve top three finish his or her
campaign is in deep trouble. In fact it is not a candidate's
showing, but the showing as it relates to expectations that is perhaps
most important.
The large field of Republican
candidates meant that
Iowans are
seeing much more activity on the Republican side. In
August 2015, 16 major Republican candidates made 30 visits to the state
totalling 72 days while five Democratic candidates made 13 visits
totalling 25 days. By December 2015 the field had thinned and 11
Republicans made 24
visits totalling 45 days, while the three Democrats made nine visits
totalling 18 days.

All this activity by the GOP candidates energized
and benefitted
local Republican parties; how that will extend to the general
election remains to be seen. Of the 11 Republicans still
competing by the time the caucuses arrived, some wre competing here
very seriously and others were "showing the
flag" and making occasional visits to the
state. Leading visitors to Iowa for the cycle thus far were
former
Sen.
Rick Santorum, who achieved his second full Grassley on Sept. 1, 2015,
and former Gov. Mike Huckabee; they needed do well in Iowa to
continue.
Several candidates who made strong plays in Iowa bowed out well before
the caucuses.
Former Gov. Rick Perry was first to go. Gov. Scott Walker had
been
seen
as something of a frontrunner in the first part of the year, but saw
his star dim over the summer. He vowed to do the full
Grassley, but the money dried up and he suspended his campaign.
Gov. Bobby Jindal put over 70 days into the state before bowing
out.
On the Democratic side, the three final players were former Sec.
of
State
Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Gov. Martin
O'Malley. Clinton "flooded the zone" in Iowa; by Sept.
5 her campaign reported it had 79 organizers, bringing her total staff
to around 100, and that did not include unpaid "organizing
fellows." Sanders, drew large crowds and put together a very
credible
organization.
O'Malley and his campaign worked the state as well.
Early Groundwork (Pre-Campaign
Period, 2013-14)
Within just a few weeks of the last presidential election the first visits by the next crop of potential candidates begins. For the 2016 cycle, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) appeared at a birthday fundraiser for Gov. Terry Branstad in Altoona on Nov. 18, 2012. From Nov. 7, 2012 to Election Day, Nov. 4, 2014, 17 potential Republican candidates made 61 visits totaling 81 days to Iowa (+). This is a bit more than at the same point in the 2012 cycle, when 16 potential Republican candidates made 51 visits totaling 71 days through Nov. 2, 2010 (+), but less than in the 2008 cycle (to Election Day 2006) when 13 potential Republican candidates made 70 visits totaling 112 days (+). Explanations for the lower amount of activity in 2013-14 and 2009-10 compared to 2005-06 include the possibility that open presidential contests in both parties in 2008 had a synergistic effect, upping the level of activity in that campaign; the difficult state of the economy in 2012 having a dampening effect; and the growth of social media lessening the need for actual visits. The Democrats' 2013-14 visit numbers were very low due to the "inevitable Hillary" scenario. From Nov. 7, 2012 to Election Day, Nov. 4, 2014, eight potential candidates made 18 visits totaling 28 days. By comparison in the 2008 cycle through Election Day 2006, 11 potential Democratic candidates made 60 visits totaling 108 days.
Potential presidential candidates looking toward 2016 sought to
cultivate good
will and build connections among local party officials and activists in
2013-14. A
good way to
do that was to help out Iowa candidates running in the 2014 mid-term
elections. Iowa was very much a swing state; active party
registration as
of Nov. 3, 2014 was 602,048 Democrats, 620,353 Republicans and 709,447
no party. There were a number of targeted and hotly contested
races.
• Iowa had a very high-profile U.S. Senate race, pitting U.S. Rep.
Bruce Braley (D) against state Sen. Joni Ernst (R) to fill the seat
held by veteran Sen. Tom Harkin (D). + Ernst
prevailed by 52.1% to 43.8%.
• The U.S. House delegation had been evenly spliit 2D and
2R.
Two seats were open: the 1st CD in the Northeast, held by Braley,
and the 3rd CD in the Southwest, where U.S. Rep. Tom Latham (R) was
retiring. Republicans won both those seats, bringing the balance
for the 114th Congress to 3R and 1D.
• Although Gov. Terry Branstad (R) easily fended off a
challenge
from state Sen. Jack Hatch (D), several of the other statewide offices
were competitive, most notably the Secretary of State race, where Paul
Pate (R) narrowly defeated Brad Anderson (D).
• Both chambers in the Iowa legislature were close heading into Nov.
4. In the
General Assembly, Republicans increased their majority from 53R-47D to
57R-43D. In the
Senate, where 25 seats were up, the balance stayed at 26D-24R.
Potential 2016 candidates put in plenty of appearances at fundraisers and events for state and local candidates and party committees, and their leadership PACs contributed as well.
There are many ways in addition to actually traveling to Iowa that
prospective candidates can engage Iowans. A candidate or
potential candidate can make calls, hold low-key meetings in his or her
office or
home, send Christmas cards, do a fundraiser, or address groups of
Iowans
without traveling to the state.
Hopefuls also made early efforts to attract talent. RAND PAC,
Sen. Rand Paul's leadership PAC, signed up A.J. Spiker, who had been
chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, as advisor in March 2014 and
announced Steve Grubbs, a veteran consultant, as chief Iowa strategist
at the end
of June 2014. Veteran operative Bob Haus is again advising Gov.
Rick Perry.
Independent of a candidate or potential candidate's efforts,
citizens and organized groups may start up efforts to build support for
(or to criticize) one or another of the presidential hopefuls.
The Ready for Hillary super PAC announced Derek Eadon, Iowa general
election
director on Obama's re-election campaign, as its Midwest regional
organizing director in April 2014. By Sept. 14 RfH reported it
had organized in all 99 counties, and it had a major presence at the
Harkin Steak Fry that day. The National Draft Ben Carson for
President
Exploratory Committee super PAC was quite active. In April 2014,
Tina Goff,
who has experience on a number of Iowa campaigns, started as Midwest
regional director for the super PAC, on Sept. 18 the super PAC
announced co-chairs, and on Oct. 20 it announced county chairs in all
99 counties (+).
Finally,
interest
groups
sought
to
leverage
small
media
buys,
events
or
actions
criticizing
one
or
another
of
the
presidential
prospects
into
a
bit
of
free
media
attention.
Examples
include
the
Judicial
Crisis
Network's
digital
ad
buy
in
advance
of
Christie's
July
17
visit
to
Iowa
and
several
actions
by
the
DREAM
Action
Coalition
to
draw
attention
to
deportations
(+).
The first decision a campaign faces on the
Iowa caucuses is whether to
compete. Running an Iowa caucus campaign requires an
intensive
ground operation. On the Republican side, social conservatives
carry significant weight, and this has prompted some more moderate
candidates to
skip Iowa.
Jon Huntsman as well as Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer tried this
approach in 2012 and John McCain tried it in 2000. On the
Democratic side Wesley Clark gave the Iowa caucuses a miss in
2004.
In 2007 an internal memo by Clinton deputy campaign manager Mike Henry
suggested that Clinton bypass the Iowa caucuses to focus on later
contests, but the campaign disavowed that notion and competed hard in
the state. Most
campaigns
conclude
that
they
must
run
in Iowa.
There were no significant challenges to Iowa's
first-in-the-nation
status during the RNC and DNC rules processes in 2013-14. DNC
rules state that "the Iowa precinct caucuses may be held no earlier
than 29 days beffore the first Tuesday in March" (Delegate Selection
Rules, Rule 11). RNC rules are less specific, but also key off
March 1 and set a general exception for the four early states, stating
that "Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may conduct their
processes no earlier than one month before the next earliest state"
(Rules of the Republican Party, Rule 16(c)(1). Thus one could
mark
Feb. 1, 2016 as the tentative date of the Iowa caucuses.
Based on recent election cycles, however, that date
could have changed. In both the 2012 (+) and
2008 (+)
cycles
the
date
was
not
set
until
October
of
the
year
before.
Iowa's
2012
precinct
caucuses
were
tentatively
scheduled
to
take
place
on
the
evening
of
February
6,
but
Florida
Republicans
set
their
primary
date
for
Jan.
31,
2012,
prompting
Iowa
Republicans
to
move
their
date
forward
to
January
3.
In
2008
the
Iowa
caucuses
were
also
held
on
January
3.
For
2016,
both
parties held
firm
so
that
no
contests took place
before
February, and the caucuses stuck to February 1.
One
difference
this
cycle was
that
the
RNC made
changes
to
its
rules
including
strong
penalties
for
states
that
go
earlier
than
proscribed
(+).
Both the Democratic and Republican state parties looked at making
some changes to their caucus processes. Iowa Democrats are
considered reforms to make the
caucuses more accessible; they conducted a “listening tour” and on
Aug.
1,
2014
the party chair presented
five proposals at the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting (+).
[Even with such changes, Democrats will be hard pressed to achieve the
high turnout level of 2008, when the historic campaigns of Obama and
Clinton
created a lot of excitement]. Iowa Republicans
have
indicated
they
would
seek
to
work
with
Democrats
on
their
proposals to increase accessibility. Additionally on Nov. 22,
2014 members of
the Republican Party of Iowa's State Central Committee signed a pledge
to remain neutral in the caucus process; the party noted that the move
"is unprecedented and is intended to send a clear signal to potential
presidential candidates: all are welcome in Iowa, and the caucus
process will be a fair and impartial one" (+).
In Jan. 2015 Iowa
Republicans
announced hiring of four regional political directors (+); part of
their responsibilities is to ensure that county parties are
prepared for the caucuses. The state party also took steps to
avoid
a results snafu in 2016 as happened in 2012 (+).
The 2015 Iowa Republican Straw Poll:
Cancelled
For Republicans, the mid-August Republican Party of
Iowa Straw
Poll had assumed almost as much importance as the caucuses
themselves.
This
mega-event
fundraiser
for
the
party
had
the
atmosphere
of
a
three-ring
circus.
Buses brought in supporters from around the state, and there was food,
entertainment and speeches. It was
an
important
organizational
test
for
the
campaigns,
and those participating planned their activities for months in
advance. Additionally, the Straw Poll coincided with the Iowa
State Fair, another major draw for
candidates
of both parties.
After Rep. Michele Bachmann won the Straw Poll in 2011, her campaign subsequently fizzled, and some questioned the merits of the event. In a Nov. 20, 2012 interview with the Wall Street Journal Gov. Terry Branstad stated, "I think the straw poll has outlived its usefulness... It has been a great fundraiser for the party but I think its days are over." Branstad later said he would leave the fate of the straw poll up to the state party. There was talk about holding a "straw poll-like event." However, on Jan. 10, 2015, during their regularly scheduled first quarter meeting, members of the Republican Party of Iowa's State Central Committee voted unanimously to hold a Straw Poll (+).
The Straw Poll had long been synomymous with
Ames. However, Iowa State
University raised what it charged the party over the years, and
party
officials entertained bids from other venues (+). On March 12, 2015
the Republican Party of Iowa's State Central Committee, meeting by
teleconference, approved the recommendation of the party's Straw Poll
Committee that the Straw Poll be held
at Central Iowa Expo in Boone on August 8, 2015 (+).
Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann emphasized the need to manage the expectations of what the Straw Poll is and what it is not. In a May 7, 2015 article in Politico Magazine, Kaufmann outlined changes to the straw poll designed "to relegate the pay-to-play nature of the Iowa Straw Poll to the dustbin of history." For example, no longer would there be an auction during which representatives of the campaigns bid for prime locations; instead spaces woud be provided for free and locations determined by lottery (>).
A
subcommittee of Central Committee members continued working out the
logistics of the event. Tickets
for
the
event
went
on
sale
on
May
8
(+).
The
party
held
its
first
informational
meeting
with
potential
participants
on
May
28
[PDF].
However,
several
prominent
candidates/potential
candidates
including
Jeb
Bush
(May
12
>),
Mike
Huckabee
(May
21
+)
and Marco Rubio (May 30)
indicated
they
would
not be participating. Iowa Republican leaders defended the
Straw Poll as "a tradition worth supporting (+)"
However, on June 8 the Republican Party of Iowa’s State Central
Committee voted to cancel the 2015 Iowa Straw Poll "to strengthen our
First in the Nation status and ensure our future nominee has the best
chance possible to take back the White House in 2016 (+).
Iowa has a population of more than three
million (July 2015 estimate 3,123,899), and its ninety-nine counties
provide
plenty of ground for
candidates to cover. Attention naturally focuses on the Des
Moines area in the center of the state. The Greater Des Moines
region (eight central Iowa counties) had a 2014 estimated population of
726,452 (>).
The
population
of
Polk
County
itself
is
about
460,000.
At
the
other
extreme
is
Adams
County,
in
the
Southwest
part
of
the
state,
with
a
population
of
less
than
4,000.
Potential candidates and candidates look for advantages as they seek
to connect to Iowans. Agriculture is
obviously important issue, and a candidate must be able to speak to
rural issues. But there is more to Iowa
than agriculture;
the
state has an increasingly diversified economy and leaders have sought
to counter a one-dimensional stereotype of the state. Social
conservatives form an important
constituency on the Republican side and organized labor is still
important on the
Democratic side. Candidates who are making a second run in the
Iowa
caucuses before have some foundations to
build upon from their previous campaigning.
Once the campaigns staff up, their major job in 2015 was to identify committed supporters, likely supporters, and persuadables (1's, 2's and 3's as they are called). The campaigns devoted much work to building a team of committed county chairs and precinct captains, and they also made considerable efforts to obtain endorsements from state and local officials, who might be able to sway neighbors and acquaintances. Republican and Democratic campaigns take decidely different approaches to this task. The campaigns of the leading major Democratic candidates had very large staffs and a dozen or more field offices around the state, while the Republican campaign organizations were much smaller and generally did not open multiple offices. The air war has been going on for some time now. The campaigns that have money are running TV and radio ads, in some cases lots of them, and several super PACs are filling the airwaves as well. Caucus-goers were bombared with mail and phone calls as well.
Exchanges with a friend, neighbor, colleague or fellow Iowan can
have an important effect on a caucus-goer's thinking. Even more
telling are first-hand impressions of the candidates. Candidates
ply the state with visits; for Republicans in 2011 visits were
particularly intense in the
weeks leading up to
the August Straw Poll, then tailed off, and picked up in the
closing
weeks of the campaign. In the 2012 cycle former Sen. Rick
Santorum reached
the "hundred days in Iowa club" and Santorum and Rep. Michele Bachmann
achieved the "99-county club."
Much organizing activity occurs around candidate visits. If a campaign has any kind of organization, a field organizer or field organizers bearing supporter cards will approach attendees after an event. There are also the multi-candidate debates and forums which often generate sign-waving battles. Having a staff that can translate the energy and interest generated by the candidate into actual Iowans willing to volunteer time and effort and to head out on a Monday evening in February to spend an hour or two in a caucus meeting is essential.
Although attention focuses on the activities of the candidates and
their campaigns, other players will be at work. Given
the huge amount of media attention various
interest groups organize on-the-ground or media campaigns to inject
their issues into the race. The state parties work to ensure a
level playing field for their candidates, and, at the same time are
ever
ready point out the foibles and faults of the opposing party's
candidates.
After all the activity, the millions spent, the
pundits' pontificating and the meaningless polls, matters are finally
in the hands
of
Iowans. Despite all the attention lavished on their state, not
that many people actually
participate in the precinct caucuses. In the 2012 Republican
caucuses, 121,503 votes were
tallied, and Santorum's winning tally was 29,839 votes (24.56%) and in
the 2008 Republican caucuses 119,200 votes were tallied and Huckabee's
winning tally was 40,054 votes (34.36%). The 2008 Democratic
caucuses marked a high point, drawing 239,872 participants; Obama,
Edwards and Clinton
finished top
three.
124,331
people
attended
the
2004
Iowa
Democratic
caucuses,
in
which
Kerry,
Edwards
and
Dean
finished
top
three.
The state parties have spent countless hours preparing for the caucuses. Iowa has 1,681 precincts. That meant a lot of work for the state parties in keeping the county chairs up to speed, lining up temporary caucus chairs, and identifying caucus sites (1, 2).
The Republican and Democratic
caucus systems are quite different. Republicans do their caucus
by secret ballot, while Democrats divide up into groups.
Through 2012, Iowa Republican caucuses were actually straw polls; candidates were simply trying to get the most total votes, but the outcome had no bearing on the selection of delegates. That has changed. On June 27, 2015, the Republican State Central Committee of Iowa amended its bylaws so that, "The Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention shall be bound on the first ballot to vote proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses."
Democratic
precinct
caucuses
have
a
15-percent
threshhold
(in
most
precincts)
to
achieve
viability;
this
means
that
if
a
caucus-goer's
candidate
fails
to achieve that level, he
or she must align with another group or go home. Attendees select
delegates to county
conventions (and thence to district conventions and the state
convention in June 2016) and vote on platform issues.
In June 2015 the Iowa Democratic and Republican parties jointly announced that, "The 2016 Iowa caucus results will be delivered via a new, mobile-enabled, cloud-based platform that will allow for accurate, efficient and secure reporting on caucus night (+)."
For the candidates, what matters is what happens on caucus night (+) and how these results are interpreted in the headlines the next day. The candidates who exceed expectations will jet off to New Hampshire claiming momentum. Those who fare poorly may drop out of the race, if not on caucus night itself in the days after the caucuses.
After all the visits, calls and canvassing, ad, mail, planning and
preparation, Hillary Clinton edged Bernie Sanders in "an historically
close" caucus on the Democratic side, while Ted Cruz, Donald Trump and
Marco Rubio finished one, two and three on the Republican side amid
record turnout. The precinct caucuses, an example of democracy in
action, look set to continue four years hence in the next presidential
cycle (+).
Democrats
Democrats held their first Iowa caucuses on Jan. 24,
1972; top finishers were uncommitted, Ed Muskie and George
McGovern. (Although McGovern finished behind Muskie, his
surprising showing provided a significant boost heading into New
Hampshire). In the three most recent competitive caucuses, the
winner has gone on to win the party's nomination. On Jan. 24,
2000, Vice President Al
Gore (63%) defeated former Sen. Bill Bradley (37%). On Jan. 19,
2004 Sen. John
Kerry (38%) finished ahead of Sen. John Edwards (32%) and former Gov
Howard Dean (18%). On Jan. 3, 2008
Sen. Barack Obama (38%) finished ahead of former Sen. John Edwards
(30%) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (29%).
Feb. 1, 2016 + |
Clinton (49.84%),
Sanders
(49.59%),
O'Malley
(0.54%), Uncomm. (0.03%). |
171,109 |
Jan. 3, 2008 | Obama (37.6%), Edwards (29.7%), Clinton (29.4%), Others (3.2%). | 239,872 |
Jan. 19, 2004 | Kerry (37.6%),
Edwards
(31.8%),
Dean
(18.0%),
Gephardt
(10.6%),
Others
(1.8%). |
124,331 |
Jan. 24,
2000 |
Gore (63.4%), Bradley (34.9%), Others (1.6%). | 60,760 |
Republicans
In 1976 Republicans moved their caucuses to the same
day as the Democrats, thereby boosting the significance of the event;
that year there was a contest between President Gerald Ford and Gov.
Ronald Reagan. The 1980 caucuses marked the first of the
multi-candidate GOP contests seen in recent cycles. Of the six
multi-candidate competitive Iowa Republican caucuses from 1980 to 2012,
the Iowa caucus winner went on to win the party's nomination two and a
half times:
Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000. In 2012 Mitt Romney
appeared to have won by eight votes and received an Iowa bump, but two
weeks later Rick Santorum was declared to have won by 34 votes in
certified results.
Feb. 1, 2016 + | Cruz 51,666
(27.6%), Trump 45,429 (24.3%), Rubio 43,228
(23.1%), Carson 17,394 (9.3%), Paul 8,481 (4.5%), Bush 5,238
(2.8%), Others 15,495 (8.2%). |
186,932 |
Jan. 3, 2012 | Santorum 29,839 (24.5%), Romney 29,805 (24.5%), Paul 26,036 (21.4%), Gingrich 16,163 (13.3%), Perry 12,557 (10.3%), Others 7,103 (5.8%). | 121,503 |
Jan. 3, 2008 | Huckabee 40,954
(34.4%),
Romney 30,021 (25.2%), F.Thompson 15,960 (13.4%), McCain
15,536 (13.0%), Paul 11,841 (9.9%), Others 4,888 (4.1%). |
119,200 |
Jan. 24,
2000 |
Bush 35,948 (40.9%), Forbes 26,744 (30.5%), Keyes 12,496 (14.2%), Bauer 7,487 (8.5%), Others 4,991 (5.7%) | 87,666 |
Feb. 12, 1996 |
Dole 25,461
(26.3%),
Buchanan 22,578 (23.3%), Alexander 17,052 (17.6%), Forbes
9,861 (10.2%), Gramm 9,055 (9.4%), Keyes 7,219
(7.5%),
Others 5,536 (5.7%). |
96,762 |
Iowa State University
- Dr. Steffen Schmidt. Iowa
Caucuses
MOOC. Four sessions: Sept. 1-Oct. 2015, Oct. 13-Nov. 10,
2015, Nov. 17-Dec.
15, 2015 and Jan. 5-Feb. 2, 2016.
"It happens every four years. Iowa voters
meet in churches, schools,
even living rooms, to be part of the first-in-the-nation stop for US
presidential hopefuls. The Iowa Caucuses have helped launch and end the
aspirations of many candidates. This initial test in the presidential
selection process will be the focus of a new massive open online course
(MOOC) at Iowa State University."
State Historical
Society of Iowa - First
in the Nation ...exhibit opened Oct. 2, 2015.
"First in the Nation is densely
populated with images from around the state and more than 160 artifacts
from the State Historical Museum of Iowa’s collection. The new
exhibition explores candidates’ journeys from early visits to Iowa and
organizing a statewide campaign, to caucus day and beyond. (+)
Dave Price. Jan. 2014. CAUCUS CHAOS: The controversial
call, characters and surprises that made Iowa 2012 a year like no other.
Self-published with
Kickstarter.
"Presidential candidates, staffers
and activists reveal
never before told inside accounts of what happened, why they occurred
and how they impacted the final results. 'Caucus Chaos' shares the real
story behind the 2012 Iowa Caucuses with a look ahead to what their
disputed finish means for the 2016 contest." Kindle
AJ Schnack, director and editor. Premiered
at 2013 Hot Docs Film Festival, April 25 to May 5, 2013. CAUCUS: Bonfire Films of America and Rival
Pictures/Om Films.
"From April 2011 until January 3, 2012 (Caucus Night), we traveled
all
over the great state of Iowa filming the seven men and one woman who
would seek to win Iowa's "first in the nation" Caucus. During
that time, our cameras captured moments that you've never seen, no
matter how much you watch the news, of the Republican hopefuls...
Inspired by PRIMARY, one of the great works of documentary (and one
created by many of our heroes), we went to Iowa to capture an intimate,
observational portrait of the current political campaign."
David P. Redlawsk, Caroline J. Tolbert, and Todd
Donovan. Dec. 2010. WHY IOWA: How Caucuses and
Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process.
Chicago,
IL:
University
of
Chicago
Press.
"Why Iowa? offers the definitive account of those early
weeks of the campaign season: from how the Iowa caucuses work and what
motivates the candidates’ campaigns, to participation and turnout, as
well as the lingering effects that the campaigning had on Iowa voters.
Demonstrating how 'what happens in Iowa' truly reverberates throughout
the country, five-time Iowa precinct caucus chair David P. Redlawsk and
his coauthors take us on an inside tour of one of the most
media-saturated and speculated-about campaign events in American
politics... Considering whether a sequential primary system, in
which early, smaller states such as Iowa and New Hampshire have such a
tremendous impact is fair or beneficial to the country as a whole, the
authors here demonstrate that not only is the impact warranted, but it
also reveals a great deal about informational elements of the
campaigns."
Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford. Dec. 2010. THE IOWA PRECINCT CAUCUSES: The Making of a Media Event, Third Edition. Iowa City, IA: Bur Oak Books [University of Iowa Press]
"The Iowa Precinct Caucuses
chronicles how the caucuses began, how they changed, and starting in
1972 how they became fodder for and manipulated by the mass
media. Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford argue that the
media have given a value to the Iowa caucuses completely out of
proportion to the reality of their purpose and procedural
methods... The third edition of this classic book has been
updated to include the elections of 2000, which saw the first winner of
the Iowa caucuses to reach the White House since 1976; of 2004 and the
roller-coaster fortunes of Howard Dean and John Kerry; and of 2008 and
the unlikely emergence of Barack Obama as a presidential contender."
John C. Skipper. Oct. 2009. THE IOWA CAUCUSES: First Tests of Presidential Aspiration, 1972-2008. Jefferson, NC: MacFarland.
"This book chronicles the most important events of each Iowa caucus
since 1972 and reveals how the unassuming Midwestern state came to be
an unlikely powerhouse in presidential politics."
Christopher C. Hull. Nov. 2007. GRASSROOTS RULES: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.
"Christopher Hull looks at the impact of Iowa on the primary
nomination and the presidency. Taking into account data spanning nearly
three decades of presidential candidates in Iowa, Hull makes the case
that Iowa’s first state status is well deserved. While New Hampshire
'filters out' Iowa’s geographic bias toward favorite local candidates,
Iowa plays a significant role in assessing a candidate’s ultimate
ability to get elected."